Election fever has hit the nation again, which probably explains the historically low turnout as everyone was in bed with their hot water bottles. Yesterday we saw voting for three Parliamentary by-elections, Bristol’s first Mayoral election, some council seats and the Police and Crime Commissioner elections across England and Wales – and there’s quite a few points of note for this not-so-super Thursday.
There were Parliamentary by-elections in Manchester, Corby and Cardiff. There’s no surprises that Labour won all three elections (holding two and taking one from the Tories), although I’m sure they’re smiling, I would be.
Corby: Louise Mensch has already asked us to blame her for the defeat of the Conservatives in Corby. Well, I refuse to. I thank her for it, from the bottom of my heart. Although between her and Nadine Dorries I’m not sure the Tories are likely to embrace a new crop of female MPs any time soon.
While Labour gained just under ten percent from last time to win almost half the vote the real story is what happened to the Conservative vote which fell by 15% to 26% with UKIP coming onto the scene for the first time with 14% (almost all taken from the Tories no doubt). This is the best ever UKIP result at a by-election, in a constituency where they have never stood before. Oh to be a populist on this day!
I should note that without UKIP it’s likely that Labour’s majority would still have been pretty hefty as the Mensch effect combined with the dodgy wind-farm goings on, or Delingpole-gate as I call it, will have kept Tory voters from the polling stations if not looking elsewhere to place their cross.
Cardiff South and Penarth: We see more crashing of the Lib Dems and rising of Labour again by almost exactly the same amount. The Tories are slipping again although by no means by the same degree as Corby, that really would take some effort.
Plaid almost doubled their vote (to just under 10%) and UKIP showed it’s not just middle England who will vote for them as they almost doubled their vote, to just over 6%. People really do seem to be looking for anyone to vote for except the Coalition Parties, which is good for Labour but they need to be careful about assuming those votes will come to them automatically.
Manchester Central: Imagine an enormous machine that sucks the happiness out of Lib Dems and vomits it into Labour. That’s these three elections that is. The Lib Dem vote was reduced by two thirds (!) with Labour’s vote rising by almost exactly the same percentage – this is exactly the same picture as the other two by-elections, although we should be careful not to draw a rule from this in what are, after all, low turnout elections.
The Tories were pushed down below the 5% needed to retain their deposit which can’t make them happy, but this was never a Tory area so let’s not get over excited. Oh alright, let’s!