Back to polling and what people want. Today I’d like to look at YouGov’s question on Shale Gas extraction, or fracking (pdf).
YouGov asked just over 1,700 people the following question;
Shale gas is natural gas trapped under sedimentary rock, which is extracted using a method known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking”. There are large reserves of shale gas in Lancashire.
Some people think that using shale gas could be a solution to Britain’s energy needs. Other people think that fracking is a dangerous technique that risks contaminating ground water and causing minor earthquakes.
From what you have seen or heard about the issue, do you think the government should or should not support the use of fracking in the UK?
And the public seem remarkably split with 32% for and 30% against. An extremely high 38% of people “don’t know” reflecting two things. First, that many people aren’t familiar with or have not even heard of this relatively new technique. Second, that people are concerned there is an energy crisis and are torn between worries about fracking and worries about the lights going out.
For campaigners this is useful information because it shows that it’s key to provide public information on fracking. Focusing on popularising the problems with fracking should take priority rather over, say, trying to convert supporters of fracking.
Demographics?
In general I think it’s fair to say that the more to the right you are the more likely you are to supporting fracking – although there’s not so much in it. The most opposed to fracking are people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 but have since deserted the party.
As usual women are far more likely to say they “don’t know”. Men taken alone are in favour of fracking (and incidentally are far more in favour of nuclear power) and women against.
Intriguingly the younger you are the more likely you are to abstain from having an opinion on fracking – a trend reflected across the energy debate – bang goes the theory that the youth think they know everything! It does though reinforce the idea that an education campaign (on university campuses for example) could be the most effective way of shifting public opinion from unaware to unimpressed.
One last piece of evidence that education on the subject is a key factor is that those in the higher “social grade” (shudder, horrible term) are more likely to “know” and more likely to oppose. These are the people who are more likely to have a university education and read news papers and so most likely to have some sort of idea of what fracking involves.
I’ve got no explanation for this but those in London and Scotland are the most likely to support shale gas extraction, with those in Wales and the Midlands most opposed. All theories on this welcome!
I’d expect public opinion on this to shift dramatically over the next few years – which way it shifts is, I suppose, up to us. Looking at the numbers I’d say the key is to simply let as many people as possible know what fracking is, and what problems it has encountered elsewhere, the facts will do the rest.
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For info on the campaign against fracking and how to get involved you may like to try frack off.